Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Wild Speculation & Outlandish Guesses: A New Hope Edition.

It's Wednesday, which all ardent Diss. readers can tell you is the day for Wild Speculation & Outlandish Guesses! The Diss-cussants got sidetracked this morning by a conspiracy theory that says that the lottery is rigged and the Cavs got the number one pick. We don't actually believe it...unless it happens, in which case we broke the story!

But onto the draft lottery or, as Warriors fans know it as: Christmas! You see, when your team is terrible, you trade in what Michael Rapaport called the "single greatest commodity known to man: hope." Hope that you will inexplicably get the number one pick, and will subsequently draft...Fred Hetzel? Joe Barry Carroll? Joe Smith? Sigh.

Should the NBA have a lottery, or just award the top pick to the worst team?

Jairo Martinez: There should be a mechanism in place to deter teams from flat out tanking. The worst team does usually get a Top 3 pick.

Jacob Greenberg: Yes, the NBA should have a lottery, for reasons I wrote about in an earlier WSOG. Simply awarding the top pick to a team that has a terrible statistical season just asks for bad behavior. A lottery keeps everyone honest, but allows for some handicaps for bad teams. Plus, it keeps things exciting. Again, I don't really have a problem with tanking. It is a tool a front office can use to ensure better draft picks (or at the very least better statistical chances at a better draft pick), with the understanding that (1) it guarantees nothing, and (2) it carries the risk of damaging your relationship with your fan base. Keep in mind: the only reason the Warriors have a 72% chance of keeping their pick is by tanking.

John Reyes-Nguyen: The NBA should have a lottery. I think it's a pretty interesting way of getting a top pick. The worst team getting the number one pick doesn't make them that much better the next year. But when a team that barely misses the playoffs gets a number one, two, or three pick, it could turn that franchise around for the next 10 years.

Andrew Snyder: Franklin, you know there's other teams in the lottery this year besides the Warriors right? Yes, I realize that doesn't answer the question, lets move on.

Franklin Mieuli: IF some sort of solution to tanking can be agreed upon, I think the worst team should get the top pick. I mean, are you really going to argue that the Bobcats shouldn't get Anthony Davis (besides the fact that they will probably ruin him)?

Do you seriously think there are shennanigans around the lottery? Did David Stern rig it so that the Knicks got Patrick Ewing in 1985?

Jairo Martinez: No shennanigans went down with Patrick Ewing. That's just luck and drafting. Don't you think the Trailblazers kick themselves to this day for choosing Bowie over Jordan?

Jacob Greenberg: No. Drafting is an imperfect science, not an under-the-table handshake.

John Reyes-Nguyen: David Stern totally iced that envelop in 85. The envelop was probably made out of some kind of crazy resume paper with super tactile feel. The NBA is totally rigged.

Andrew Snyder: If it ever came out that there were shenanigans, would it be a bigger deal than Donaghy? I say yes.

Franklin Mieuli: No. There are no lottery shennanigans.

The Warriors, who have a 72% chance at getting the 7 pick or higher (and thus keeping it this season, and giving their pick to the Jazz next year) were rumored to be trying to cut a deal with the Jazz to ensure that they keep the pick this year (in the 28% of scenarios where it is 8 or lower, and they have to give it to the Jazz). Does this make any sense?

Jairo Martinez: That right there is shenanigans. If you give up considerations for picks, you should not be allowed to get them back via bribe, I mean trade.

Jacob Greenberg: I was for it. I know next to nothing about the players coming out, but I do know that Chicago won the 2009 draft with a 1.79% chance of securing the top pick, and that got them Derrick Rose. I want a chance to play.

John Reyes-Nguyen: No. But I like the San Francisco Warriors uniforms and Klay Thompson is gonna be pretty damn good.

Andrew Snyder: No it doesn't make sense. Also, how funny would it be if the original Marko Jaric - Sam Cassell Wolves pick that's now with the Hornets after the Chris Paul deal won the lottery. That would be hysterical, and very fitting for Minnesota sports.

Franklin Mieuli: The Warriors are being incredibly risk-averse. They think that a lineup of Curry/Thompson/SF/Lee/Bogut, plus a blue chip draft pick, is a guaranteed playoff birth. They are willing to give up a little bit (money? 2nd round pick?) to ensure that happens.

Will you be watching (ESPN, 8 p.m.) the lottery?

Jairo Martinez: I just want to see someone get their hopes dashed and the awkward reactions that follow. Set your DVRs cuz this is gonna be great!

Jacob Greenberg: Yes. Never mind the fact I'll be at work.

John Reyes-Nguyen: No, watching the NBA draft is bad enough, the lottery is even worse.

Andrew Snyder: I'll be DVR'ing it. I hope Anthony Davis ends up somewhere totally crazy, on a team where he could immediately create a monster. The Blazers? The Rockets? He'll probably go to the Wizards or some BS though...

Franklin Mieuli: Yes. A lottery may be stupid, but it sure is suspenseful.


  1. martinez touched on a point about portland's terrible drafting miscue with bowie over jordan. looking over the past 5 years....

    2011: nolan smith at 21, denver took kenneth faried at 22.

    2010: elliot williams at 22, he missed all of last season and almost all of this season due to, you guessed it, a knee injury

    2009: victor claver at 22, hasn't played a single game with portland because he's stuck in spain, also omri casspi, rodrigue beaubois and taj gibson were all picked after him

    2008: brandon rush at 13, robin lopez, roy hibbert, ryan anderson, serge ibaka, jj hickson, nicolas batum and george hill all chosen after him

    2007: with the #1 pick, oden over durant. the number of quality players they missed out on is too many to list.

  2. Well researched. That's pretty bad. I had no idea.

    And with hindsight being what it is, we have to wonder about the B-Roy pick as well.